As the siege of the tactical city of Avdiivka advances, the playbook that we pictured in a previous post is happening.
The MSM has 2 propaganda stories going on at the same time: initially they firmly insist that Russian offensive is a total catastrophe, has actually completely stopped working. At the exact same time, they start the disinformation that the city is trivial at all. In this manner, when the Russian success comes, it will be offered as unimportant.
A Business Insider heading reveals these 2 stories simultaneously, stating that “Russian casualties skyrocket by 90% as Putin’s generals order furious attacks on little city in east, UK intelligence states”.
Meanwhile, Russian forces preserve relentless pressure on the shattered remains of Avdiivka.
Reuters reported:
” The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, in its night report, stated Ukrainian forces warded off almost 20 Russian attacks around Avdiivka, its structures now mainly decreased to shells. Russian air campaign struck neighboring towns, it stated.
Avdiivka has actually ended up being a watchword for resistance, considered as the entrance to regaining the Russian-held city of Donetsk and the rest of Donbas– comprised of Donetsk and Luhansk areas.”
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy: ” circumstance in Avdiivka and the neighboring town of Maryinka was ‘especially hard. Many Russian attacks. Our positions are being held’.”
Russian forces are observing stringent OPSEC, so the info we have from their side is extremely minimal.
But we do understand that Ukrainian Military Commander Zaluzhny was visualized going to a bunker in the Avdeevka front– similar to he did at the height of the Bakhmut fights.
That shows the front’s significance to the AFU.
As for the genuine potential customers of the Russian offensive, we can listen to Zelensky’s previous consultant, now in exile, Oleksy Arestovitch.
He has actually handled the function of revealing the difficult facts to Ukrainians online.
He advises audiences that ‘ It began the very same method in Ilovaisik, Debaltsevo, Popasnoe, Severodonetsk, Lisichansk, Bakhmut, Soledar: The danger of encirclement of Avdeevka is genuine!”
Watch:
Arestovitch: ” Now we are enjoying the heavy losses of the Russians at Avdeevka. I desire to advise you that the 6 previous times it ended with us losing the areas that we so brazenly started to safeguard.
The risk of encirclement and the loss of Avdiivka is definitely genuine. It needs to not be ignored. I am not the only one discussing this, however likewise lots of severe specialists. We require to consider how this takes place and why we have actually been captured in the very same trap for the seventh time.”
When it comes to the specifics of the military techniques, we turn to among my preferred experts on Substack.
To being with, the frequency of the ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) suggests that offending actions are constantly understood to protectors.
Simplicius the Thinker reported:
” It remains in truth difficult to collect any big scale ‘surprise’ strikes, which suggests the only method to advance is not to count on some wonderful ‘surprise’ armored development, which uses a quick window of your opponent’s unwary confusion to strike previous them to the back, and possibly surround them. Rather, given that both sides understand where the bulk of each other’s forces are, improvement can just be effectively made by method of a step-wise, progressive build-up of a number of smaller sized tactical success in the capture of essential tactical positions which slowly compromise your challenger’s capability to safeguard the sector.”
Russian Federation forces are introducing a ‘mass multi-pronged attack’, with a lot of the instructions maybe being decoys.
The mains thrust seems the capture the ‘Slag Heap’ north of the city, in order to cover with weapons fire all future advances with an enormously helpful elevation.
One they protect fire-control over the MSR (primary supply path), life will end up being very challenging for the Ukrainian protectors.
” They’ll never ever lack weapons due to the fact that the weapons batteries fire from numerous kilometers away, outside the scope of Avdiivka’s ‘cauldron’. The forces inside the cauldron will in time start to run low on vital products like mortars and ATGMs. As soon as you’re short on ATGMs, think what that indicates? Russian armor presses will start getting increasingly more aggressive and effective. It’s a low boil, constrictor tightening up– book design.”
That implies even a small pressure on that one and just supply path ‘ will be ravaging to the AFU due to the fact that the fields will be far too muddy to move devices and materials’
Once Russians record more direct fire positions over the MSR, they can ” lay back and change to a more sluggish going attritional and positional mode. At that point, they can merely starve Avdiivka out with overall fire control of the MSR and there will not be any instant requirement to totally shut the cauldron.”
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The post Siege of Avdiivka: The MSM Paints the Russian Offensive as a Failure, however Zelensky’s Former Advisor Arestovitch Warns That the City May Be About the Be Encircled appeared initially on The Gateway Pundit
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