Got to offer credit where credit is due. Simplicius76 is an unknown Substack author who has actually composed the very best analysis I have actually seen of the tactical and tactical measurements of the war in Ukraine and the upcoming Russian offensive. Russia is doing what it has actually done through history in the significant disputes where it dominated– i.e., maskirovka (camouflaging its strategies and motions). Russia is moving soldiers and devices on fronts in the north, the east and the south. They are presently assaulting in a number of various sectors, which is requiring Ukraine to redeploy desperately soldiers to attempt to counter brand-new hazards that are emerging like raving wild fires.

Here are links to 4 of Simplicius76’s current posts. Need to check out product if you wish to comprehend what has actually occurred and what will unfold in the coming weeks. The very first post goes over in depth the incorrect presumptions that have actually been made about an anticipated Russia offensive:

His post, All Seeing Eye: Can Russia Break Through The West’s ISR Overmatch?, offers fantastic insights on how modern-day Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance systems have actually modified significantly war in the 21 st Century. Russia can no longer develop and release an army in secret as it finished with Operation Uranus, which assaulted the German Army besieging Stalingrad from the north and the south and eventually caught Van Paulus’ Sixth Army. That does not indicate Russia is incapable of concealing where it prepares to strike or of tricking Ukraine and NATO about its intents.

I continue to think that the increased military operations by Russia throughout the last 3 weeks belong to the offensive that lots of in the West think will can be found in the Spring. The next number of weeks will mark a watershed in the war in Ukraine.