After Biden’s horrendous debate performance against Trump, it became clear that critics were right about his signs of dementia—he trails off, slurs his speech, makes up words, and often loses his train of thought. His handlers had been careful to limit his public embarrassments, but after the debate, even his supporters and associates started calling for him to step down.
The Trump shooting didn’t help either. The comparison was stark: one man struggles to walk up the stairs while the other took a bullet and was back to work two days later. So, the big question is: can the Democrats change their candidate this late in the game?
Historically, it’s rare and complicated to replace a presidential candidate this close to an election. The most notable last-minute changes involved vice-presidential nominees. For instance, in 1972, Thomas Eagleton was replaced by Sargent Shriver after revelations about Eagleton’s mental health treatments surfaced.
In presidential races, there have been significant upheavals, but not usually this close to an election. In 1860, the Democrat Party split into Northern and Southern factions, each nominating their own candidates months before the election. These changes were driven by deep party divisions, not last-minute switches.
In today’s political landscape, changing a candidate this late is a massive logistical and political challenge. Nominating a candidate involves extensive campaigning, fundraising, and organizing, culminating in the national conventions held in July or August. Changing a candidate after they’ve been formally nominated would require extraordinary measures, like reconvening the convention or having the party’s central committee select a new nominee.
Legally, each state has its own rules for ballot access and candidate substitution deadlines, which typically occur well before the election. Changing a candidate after these deadlines would involve significant legal maneuvering, possibly even court battles, to ensure the new candidate’s name appears on the ballot.
Another major factor is the reaction of donors and supporters. Presidential campaigns involve millions of dollars, and donors expect their contributions to support the nominated candidate. A sudden change could lead to a backlash from those who feel their investments were wasted, potentially resulting in a loss of financial support at a crucial time.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is moving forward with its plan to virtually nominate Biden ahead of the Democratic convention in Chicago next month, despite increasing calls from some party officials to reconsider this strategy.
According to an email obtained by CNN, the committee will hold a meeting to set in motion the steps and timeline for virtually nominating Biden. The email emphasized that “no virtual voting will begin before August 1,” likely aiming to address internal allegations that they are trying to rush the nomination through.
A growing faction of House Democrats, convinced that Biden is too politically damaged to defeat Trump in November, has urged the DNC to abandon the virtual nomination plans altogether. A draft letter circulating among Democratic lawmakers calls on the party to slow down the process. In a recent letter, the co-chairs of the rules committee alluded to reports of Biden allies hoping to accelerate the virtual roll call, writing: “No matter what may be reported, our goal is not to fast-track.”
It seems the DNC feels there is a very real chance that enough Democrats and supporters will call for Biden to drop out, so they want to secure his candidacy, as quickly as possible. Apparently, the DNC wants to keep Biden in the race. Despite calls for him to step aside, Biden has doubled down and announced his intention to stay in, stating that only “the Lord Almighty” could convince him to step down and let another Democrat take his place.
While delegates typically support the candidate who won their party’s primary, they are only obligated to do so in “good conscience.” This means they could potentially vote for another candidate even if Biden remains in the race. Marianne Williamson, who unsuspended her campaign in late February, remains in the race but has zero delegates. Many have also suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris should step in as the nominee.
Adding yet another wrinkle to what is proving to be a very unusual election, in the past few days, Biden has softened his tone about staying the course. He has said that he would consider dropping out if he believed there was no way to win. He has also stated that he would drop out if he were diagnosed with a medical condition.
If Biden were to step down, the DNC would need to act quickly to select a replacement. This process could involve reconvening the convention delegates or having the DNC central committee choose a new nominee. The timing would be critical, as any delay could further jeopardize the party’s chances in the election. The obvious choice to replace Biden would be Vice President Harris, but polls show that she is effectively unelectable.
Additionally, never in U.S. electoral history have both the presidential and vice-presidential candidates been replaced, making such a move extremely unlikely.
While changing a presidential candidate this late in the election cycle is theoretically possible, it presents significant challenges and risks. Historical precedents show that while vice-presidential changes have occurred close to the election, presidential nominee changes have been less common and usually not as last-minute. The logistical, legal, and financial hurdles, combined with the need to maintain party unity and voter confidence, make such a move a daunting task.
In Biden’s case, the debate performance has certainly fueled discussions, but whether these will translate into concrete actions remains to be seen. At the same time, Biden’s surprise COVID diagnosis is fueling speculation that he or his team are planning a face-saving exit. This still leaves the crucial question of who would run against Trump with just months until the election.
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